Star Wars Risk Dice
Contents
- Contents
- Overview
- Summary of Results
- Detailed Results
- Program Source Code
- Bottom of Page
Overview
This is my web page for the Star Wars Risk Dice program. It calculates the probabilities of different battle outcomes for the game Star Wars Risk. The goal of this is to add some numerical basis to decisions about when to build which kinds of spaceships.
The following is included:
- Dice roll distributions for all numbers of dice and combinations spaceships
- Probabilities of different battle outcomes for all numbers of attacker and defenders and all spaceship combinations
- Probabilities of success for death star attacks
- Fully-documented program source code
The following are not included (end of 2013):
- Outcomes for invasions consisting of more than one battle
- The effects of playing Risk cards
Warning: All text files (including code) have UNIX line endings (\r\n) instead of Windows line endings (\n). This means that if you have a Wondows computer and open them in Notepad they will display incorrectly. You can avoid this by opening them in Wordpad instead. If you want to use Notepad, open the file in Wordpad and resave it to fix the line endings. The files inside the program zip have Windows endings.
Results Summary
The best ships to build in order for a large force when:
-
Attacking single units with no defending spaceships:
| New Ship Built |
Outcome Probabilities |
Average Losses |
| Kill 1 |
Lose 1 |
| |
65.972% |
34.028% |
0.34028 |
| Bomber |
82.639% |
17.361% |
0.17361 |
| Captial Ship |
86.979% |
13.021% |
0.13021 |
| Capital Ship #2 |
90.234% |
9.766% |
0.09766 |
| Fighter |
92.758% |
7.242% |
0.07242 |
-
Attacking multiple units with no defending spaceships:
| New Ship Built |
Outcome Probabilities |
Average Losses |
| Kill 2 |
1 Each |
Lose 2 |
| |
37.166% |
33.578% |
29.257% |
0.92092 |
| Bomber |
51.055% |
30.568% |
18.377% |
0.67322 |
| Bomber #2 |
61.934% |
25.476% |
12.59% |
0.50656 |
| Fighter |
69.457% |
22.076% |
8.467% |
0.3901 |
| Capital Ship |
75.621% |
18.223% |
6.155% |
0.30533 |
| Capital Ship #2 |
80.827% |
14.756% |
4.416% |
0.23588 |
| Capital Ship #3 |
85.177% |
11.723% |
3.1% |
0.17923 |
-
Defending against multiple units with no attacking spaceships:
| New Ship Built |
Outcome Probabilities |
Average Losses |
| Kill 2 |
1 Each |
Lose 2 |
| |
29.257% |
33.578% |
37.166% |
1.07908 |
| Bomber |
35.237% |
40.844% |
23.92% |
0.88684 |
| Fighter |
47.186% |
36.698% |
16.116% |
0.6893 |
| Bomber #2 |
62.577% |
25.874% |
11.548% |
0.4897 |
| Capital Ship |
68.347% |
23.317% |
8.336% |
0.39989 |
Note that rounding errors mean these percentages may not total exactly 1.
Chance of destroying the death star:
| Roll Required |
No Ships |
Fighter |
Bomber |
Capital Ship |
| 9 |
74.074% |
89.352% |
83.796% |
80.556% |
| 10 |
62.5% |
80.556% |
74.074% |
71.528% |
| 11 |
50.0% |
68.333% |
62.5% |
61.111% |
| 12 |
37.5% |
54.167% |
50.0% |
50.0% |
| 13 |
25.926% |
39.537% |
37.5% |
38.889% |
| 14 |
16.204% |
25.926% |
25.926% |
28.472% |
| 15 |
9.259% |
14.815% |
16.204% |
19.444% |
| 16 |
4.63% |
7.407% |
9.259% |
12.153% |
| 17 |
1.852% |
2.963% |
4.63% |
6.944% |
| 18 |
0.463% |
0.741% |
1.852% |
3.472% |
| 19 |
--- |
--- |
0.463% |
1.389% |
| 20 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
0.347% |
| 21 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
Notes for attacking the death star:
-
Playing a card that adds +1 to all your dice rolls effectively decreases the required total by 3
- Playing a card that adds +2 decreases the required total by 6
- Playing the "One in a Million" card means that you automatically destroy the death star if theoretically possible
Detailed Results
Exact dice roll distributions:
Probabilities for battle losses:
Probabilities for attacking the death star (104KB)
All data in one file (659KB)
Program Source Code
The program as a zipped VC10 project
Included README file
Header files:
Source files:
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